Editorial
How these pieces are made
Last updated .
Predicatio traces one claim at a time. These are the rules each trace is held to, so you can tell what the sources say from what I'm arguing.
The chain
Each trace is built as an ordered chain of steps. For every step I record where the claim appeared, the date, the exact wording, and what it cited. I open the cited source and quote the passage it rests on. A step whose source I could not open is marked as such and cannot carry a verdict.
The verdicts
Each step gets one of these: supported, overstated, distorted (the population, place or time frame changed), changed meaning (the same word now means something else), unsourced, circular, or source not openable. The verdict is about the step and the source it cited, and I show the two passages side by side.
Fairness to people and outlets
A trace compares what a source says with what a later piece said it said. It does not guess at motive, and it does not name an individual where the outlet or the document is the point. Anyone named can write to me, and a correction runs with its date.
What the best evidence says
Every trace ends with the strongest primary evidence I could open on the underlying question: who was measured, how, when, and what the numbers show. A claim can trace badly and still point at something real, and the piece says which it is.
How I search
Each piece includes a short method note: where I searched for the origin, with which terms, on what date, and what I left out and why. The search starts from the earliest versions of the claim I can find and follows citations forward and back, using open research indexes such as Crossref, OpenAlex and Europe PMC, and news and report archives. If an earlier source turns up later, that is a correction.
Citation checks
Before a piece publishes, a script opens every linked source and checks that it loads. It resolves every DOI on Crossref and compares the title and year with what I cited. It checks each paper's retraction status on OpenAlex. It also searches the source text for every passage I quote, word for word. The results are printed at the foot of the piece with the date. These checks show that a source exists and says what is quoted. They do not show the source is right.
Claims, ledger and independent check
Each factual sentence is tied to a passage in a source the script opened, and a model that did not write the draft checks every claim against its passage alone. AI reviewers with different briefs then read the draft. A piece that fails any check does not publish; its date moves. These are model judgements, and a pass is not proof. A sample of published pieces is audited afterward.
Corrections
If something is wrong, write to [email protected]. A correction goes at the foot of the piece with its date and what changed, and is logged on the corrections page. I don't edit a mistake out quietly. Nothing has needed a correction so far.
Independence and disclosure
Predicatio is my own project. Nothing on it is sponsored, and it is not client work. I build websites and web strategy for a living at thisismyurl.com. Where a piece touches something I have built, sold, used or been paid by, the byline note says so.